报告题目：Measuring the impact of air pollution on respiratory infection risk in China

报告人：    唐三一  教授 

报告时间：2019年1月13日（周日）14:30—16:00   

报告地点：威廉希尔学术报告厅

报告摘要：China is now experiencing major public health challenges caused by air pollution, and there are many challenges to quantify the dynamics of air pollution and its impact on the risk of respiratory infection. This talk we would like to present our recent work on this topic, and to show an integrated data analysis to quantify the association among air quality index (AQI), meteorological variables and respiratory infection risk in Shaanxi province of China in the period of November 15th,2010 to November 14th, 2016. Our analysis illustrated a statistically significantly positive correlation between the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases and AQI, and the respiratory infection risk has increased progressively with increased AQI with a time lag of 0-3 days. We also developed mathematical models (deterministic and stochastic models) for the AQI trend and respiratory infection dynamics, incorporating AQI-dependent incidence and AQI-based behavior change interventions. Our combined data, model identification and theoretical analysis estimated the basic reproduction number for the respiratory infection during the studying period to be 2.4076, higher than the basic reproduction number of the 2009 pandemic influenza in the same province. Moreover, some novel methods have been developed for the SDE model, and the switching points related to the smog seasons have been estimated.  Our modelling-based simulations concluded that, in terms of respiratory infection risk reduction, the persistent control of emission in the China's blue-sky programmer is much more effective than substantial social-economic interventions implemented only during the smog days. Finally, I would like to mention that the non-smooth Filippov system could also be used to model the smog season and non-smog season (switching system), and then to analyze its dynamics.

报告人简介: 唐三一，现任陕西师范大学教授，博士生导师，数学与信息科学学院经理。2003年中国科学院数学所获得博士学位，2003年至2007年在英国Warwick大学从事基因调控网络识别、数据分析的交叉学科研究。先后到加拿大、美国、日本、德国、法国等国知名大学从事合作研究或作大会特邀报告，建立了广泛的国际合作关系。主要从事生物数学和生物统计学的研究，提出了一系列重要的建模思想，发展了新的理论分析技巧、模型辨识和数值研究方法。发表SCI论文120多篇，被SCI杂志引用超过2200次，4篇ESI高被引论文，连续四年入选中国学者榜单。完成或主持5项数理、信息、医学等不同学部国家自然科学基金5项（4项面上和1项中美生物医学国际合作），参与1项国家自然科学基金重点项目（第二参与人），研究成果获陕西省自然科学二等奖1项（第一完成人）。三次应邀出席生物数学国际大会并作大会特邀报告，部分研究得到中国日报、加拿大环球邮报、Elesvier出版社等国内外媒体的广泛报道，在公共卫生领域产生了深远的社会影响。2018年入选陕西省科技创新领军人才。

欢迎广大师生参加！               

                                                                                        威廉希尔

                                                                                       2019年1月8日