2017年度威廉希尔外请专家学术报告之七
时间：2017-04-05 08:24:28 来源： 作者：数学学院 阅读： 次
报告摘要: Cases of co-infection by dengue and Zika have been reported, the implication of this co-infection for an integrated intervention program for controlling both dengue and Zika must be addressed urgently. Major challenges remain when attempting to quantify and evaluate the impacts of the integrated program of control strategies on dengue infection or Zika infection. In this talk, we initially present an impulsive mathematical model to closely mimic the integrated program of impulsive vector control (every Friday afternoon since the initiation of the program) and continuous patient treatment and isolation implemented in the Guangdong Province of China during its 2014 dengue outbreak. We fitted the data of accumulated infections and used the parameterized model to carry out a retrospective analysis to estimate the basic reproduction number 1.7425 (95% CI 1.4443--2.0408), the control reproduction number 0.1709. This suggests that integrated intervention is highly effective in controlling the dengue outbreak. We also simulated outbreak outcomes under different variations of the implemented interventions. The findings indicate that quick and persistent impulsive implementation of vector control result in an effective reduction in the control reproduction number and hence lead to significant decline of new infections. Secondly, we investigate the implication of vaccination against dengue for Zika outbreak. Our analysis determines specific conditions under which vaccination against dengue can significantly increase the Zika outbreak peak, and speed up the Zika outbreak peak timing. Our results call for further study about the co-infection to direct an integrated control to balance the benefits for dengue control and the damages of Zika outbreak.
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